Economy

Jobless figures can easily reach 4.3 million, higher than gov’t estimates

by
Mar 29, 2009

Ibon calls the 2.9 million jobless figures in the latest labor force survey an “underestimation.” It did not include the number of discouraged jobseekers, or those who are willing to take up work from the labor force. Ibon’s higher estimates aims to correct the unwarranted change in the official unemployment definition in April 2005, which conveniently removes discouraged jobseekers and those willing/not available to immediately take up work from the labor force and hence does not count them as officially unemployed even if they do not have jobs.

Ibon estimates that some 2.5 % of the working age population 15 years and over should still be considered part of the labor force, which implies an additional 1.5 million jobless on top of the 2.9 million officially reported– for a total of roughly 4.3 million jobless.

The additional 2.5% is based on the estimated discrepancy in official and actual labor force participation rates in 2008. The number of jobless could be even much higher if, as is likely, labor force participation rates this year become bloated by even greater numbers of discouraged job-seekers.Read on