TAGUM CITY— The state weather bureau PAG-ASA warned that the dry spell episode will likely to be felt in June, bringing drier conditions and decreased rainfall in the country.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa), in a press statement Thursday, said that “a majority of climate models indicate that El Niño may develop this year. El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP).”
PAG-ASA also predicts that El Niño may peak in the last quarter of 2014 and may last until the first quarter of 2015.
PAGASA said it is closely monitoring the oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific that could lead to possible development of an El Niño.
The weather bureau already noted significant increase in the SSTA from 0.2 to 0.4°C from April 21 to April 28, 2014.
PAG-ASA predicts that this condition may persist for the next nine months, citing that the established threshold of SSTA for an El Niño phenomenon is 0.5°C or higher during a three-month period.
But cautioned also that the country could still experience normal number of tropical cyclone this year with tropical cyclone tracks are expected to shift northward and its intensity could become stronger.
El Niño causes the behavior of tropical cyclones to become erratic, affecting its tracks and intensity, said PAG-ASA.
Typhoons Milenyo (2006) and Typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng (2009) were typhoons have occurred during peak of El Niño.
PAGASA said it will continue to closely monitor the tropical Pacific and updates/advisories shall be issued as appropriate. Concerned agencies are advised to take precautionary measures to mitigate the potential impacts of this phenomenon. (Mart D. Sambalud/davaotoday.com)
